Monthly Runoff Predictions Based on Rainfall Forecasts in a Small Oklahoma Watershed
نویسندگان
چکیده
Conditions under which monthly rainfall forecasts translate into monthly runoff predictions that could support water resources planning and management activities were investigated on a small watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff response to rainfall forecasts was simulated using the hydrologic model SWAT. Eighteen scenarios were examined that represented combinations of wet, average, and dry antecedent rainfall conditions, with wet, normal, and dry forecasted rainfall. Results suggest that for the climatic and physiographic conditions under consideration, rainfall forecasts could offer potential application opportunities in surface water resources but only under certain conditions. Pronounced wet and dry antecedent rainfall conditions were shown to have greater impact on runoff than forecasts, particularly in the first month of a forecast period. Large forecast impacts on runoff occurred under wet antecedent conditions, when the fraction of forecasted rainfall contributing to runoff was greatest. Under dry antecedent conditions, most of the forecasted rainfall was absorbed in the soil profile, with little immediate runoff response. Persistent three-month forecasts produced stronger impacts on runoff than one-month forecasts due to cumulative effects in the hydrologic system. Runoff response to antecedent conditions and forecasts suggest a highly asymmetric utility function for rainfall forecasts, with greatest decisionsupport potential for persistent wet forecasts under wet antecedent conditions when the forecast signal is least dampened by soil-storage effects. Under average and dry antecedent conditions, rainfall forecasts showed little potential value for practical applications in surface water resources assessments. (KEY TERMS: runoff; streamflow; surface water; forecast; rainfall-runoff models; rainfall.) Garbrecht, Jurgen D., Jeanne M. Schneider, and Michael W. Van Liew, 2006. Monthly Runoff Predictions Based on Rainfall Forecasts in a Small Oklahoma Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 42(5):12851295.
منابع مشابه
Rainfall-runoff process modeling using time series transfer function
Extended Abstract 1- Introduction Nowadays, forecasting and modeling the rainfall-runoff process is essential for planning and managing water resources. Rainfall-Runoff hydrologic models provide simplified characterizations of the real-world system. A wide range of rainfall-runoff models is currently used by researchers and experts. These models are mainly developed and applied for simulation...
متن کاملClustering of heterogeneous precipitation fields for the assessment and possible improvement of lumped neural network models for streamflow forecasts
This work addresses the issue of better considering the heterogeneity of precipitation fields within lumped rainfall-runoff models where only areal mean precipitation is usually used as an input. A method using a Kohonen neural network is proposed for the clustering of precipitation fields. The evaluation and improvement of the performance of a lumped rainfall-runoff model for one-day ahead pre...
متن کاملمدلسازی بارش رواناب با استفاده از اصل ماکزیمم آنتروپی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه کسیلیان)
Accurate estimation of runoff for a watershed is a very important issue in water resources management. In this study, the monthly runoff was estimated using the rainfall information and conditional probability distribution model based on the principle of maximum entropy. The information of monthly rainfall and runoff data of Kasilian River basin from 1960 to 2006 were used for the development o...
متن کاملRole of climate forecasts and initial conditions in developing streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall–runoff regime
Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on a monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall–runoff regime critically depend on the ...
متن کاملNumerical simulations of radar rainfall error propagation
[1] The primary advantage of radar observations of precipitation compared with traditional rain gauge measurements is their high spatial and temporal resolution and large areal coverage. Unfortunately, radar data require vigorous quality control before being converted into precipitation products that can be used as input to hydrologic models. In this study we coupled a physically based atmosphe...
متن کامل